Closing negative with fluctuations, the price spread between domestic and overseas markets inverted and narrowed [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2508 futures contract opened at 71,930 yuan/mt and closed in the red, with the lower Bollinger Band providing support at the bottom. During the night session, the most-traded BC copper futures contract fluctuated upward initially, touching a high of 72,200 yuan/mt. During the day session, the center of copper prices gradually moved downward, reaching an intraday low of 71,740 yuan/mt. Subsequently, it fluctuated considerably and finally closed at 71,760 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt or 0.13%. Open interest reached 5,843 lots, an increase of 51 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 4,144 lots. Macro side, the 90-day "grace period" for the US's "reciprocal tariff" expired on July 9th. It is worth monitoring whether there will be any new trade agreements and specific tariff policies in the future. Fundamentals side, LME inventories rebounded slightly, increasing by 1,075 mt. SMM copper inventories in major domestic regions also rebounded slightly, increasing by 5,770 mt from Monday to 131,800 mt. Both domestic and overseas inventories are in a state of slow rebound. High copper prices have brought certain pressure on the consumption of copper processed materials, and copper prices have encountered resistance.

The SHFE copper 2508 futures contract closed at 80,560 yuan/mt. If we consider the most-traded BC copper 2508 futures contract at 71,760 yuan/mt, its after-tax price is 81,089 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2508 futures contract and the BC copper futures contract is -529, maintaining an inversion and narrowing compared to the previous day.